A Golden Year (2025): Gold's Price Surge - The Signal in the Noise!

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A Golden Year (2025): Gold’s Price Surge - The Signal in the Noise!

I grew up in India in a time where if you had wealth, your investment options were limited. A stock market with sparse listings, accompanied by a lack of trust in financial assets, led investors to put their wealth into tangible assets. Real estate was the most common choice but gold was a strong competitor, though investments in the latter often took the form of jewelry and ornaments. As financial markets have gained dominance across the globe, especially so in the last four decades, gold has retreated to the background, with lagging returns in most years. In 2025, as stock and bond markets climbed walls of worry almost nonchalantly to reach new highs, gold has also been a surprisingly big winner, building on a recovery that started in 2022 to crest $4000 an ounce in October 2025. For long term proponents of investing in gold, this has been vindication, but even for investors who have never held gold in their portfolios, there is a message from the gold’s rise that they ignore at their own peril. I must confess that I have never felt the draw of gold, and have never held it in my portfolio, but I have always been fascinated by the hold that gold has on some investors, and the reasons for its longevity. In this post, I will start by first positioning gold in the investment continuum and then examining its price movements, both in 2025 and with a longer term perspective, to get a handle on the drivers of these movements, before looking at how gold may fit in investment portfolios.

Gold: Commodity, Currency or Collectible?

I have argued that all investments can be classified into one of four groups - assets, with expected cashflows, either contractual (fixed income) or residual, commodities, which derive their value from use as inputs into production of other products or services, currencies, used as mediums of exchange and stores of value, and collectibles, held for their scarcity and enduring demand. This categorization matters because it provides a starting point for discussions of how to attach prices to each:

With assets, you can estimate value based on expected cash flows and risk. but you also price them based upon demand and supply. With commodities like oil or iron ore, you may be able to estimate value, based upon aggregated demand and supply, but it is far more likely that pricing will dominate. With currencies and collectibles, the absence of expected cash flows makes pricing the only option, making mood and momentumkey variables determining pricing direction.

To assess gold as an investment, we need to first start by classifying it and while it is not an asset, it can or has been a currency, a commodity and a collectible at different points in history and in different forms.

• It is an inefficient currency, and while there are undoubtedly transactions where gold coins have been used as tender, difficulties associated with checking authenticity, security and breaking down into small units have limited its use through history.

• It can be used as a commodity, as is the case when it is used to make jewelry or statues (or in tooth fillings), but even when used in this context, it is often held more for its value as a collectible than for aesthetic reasons.

• It is as a collectible that gold has stood out, with governments, banks and individuals attaching value to it over time.

Thus, it is safe to say that it is gold’s role as a collectible that has driven its pricing over time. To the question of “so what”, there are implications that follow almost immediately, and that will animate our discussion of gold’s performance in 2025:

• Since gold, absent cash flows, cannot be valued, arguing whether gold is under or over valued is a pointless one, just as it is for bitcoin. In fact, if your investment philosophy is strictly tethered to finding investments that are under valued by the market, gold will not have a place in your portfolio, explaining Warren Buffett’s long standing aversion to it, as an investment. It is worth noting that Berkshire Hathaway did invest in Barrick Gold, but an investment in a gold mining company has expected cash flows and is thus an asset.

• Gold is priced every day, and that pricing process is driven by demand and supply, and while we will outline macro variables that can affect one or both, it is ultimately a process where mood and momentum will carry the day.

Without doubt, gold is one of the longest standing collectibles, predating and outliving its competitors. So, what is it that explains gold’s durability as a collectible? The following factors come into play, and in the process of assessing them, we can get some insight into gold’s enduring standing:

1. Scarcity: The supply of gold is not fixed, since more gold can be extracted, but it is finite. At the start of 2025, there were approximately 244,000 metric tons of gold in the world, held in a variety of forms (jewelry, gold bars & coins etc.). While gold production in 2024 amounted added 3,000 tons to this quantity, it is estimated that that there about 60,000 metric tons of gold that are still in reserves. That puts it in a sweet spot between elements like platinum that are too scarce (about 10,000 metric tons) to be widely held, and more difficult to extract, and elements that are too plentiful to hold their value.

2. Durability: For a collectible to hold its value, it has to be durable, and one of the reasons that gold acquired its collectible status is because it is chemically stable, malleable and does not oxidize or corrode (when it comes into contact with acids and other agents).

3. Desirability: There is something about gold that exerts a hold on human beings. From the Greek myth of Midas, the king whose touch turned everything to gold, to the legend of El Dorado, a city made of gold, that led the Spanish to cross the ocean to seek it out in South America, gold has driven narratives and altered history.

Clearly, gold is not the only collectible, but almost every collectible, starting with other precious metals, moving to fine art and even Pokemon cards can be assessed on these three dimensions.

Gold: A Pricing Perspective

Gold has a long history in investing, and the best to way to understand where we are right now is to look back at that history. As you look back at up and down years, we can start to make sense of the fundamentals that drive gold prices, as well as the noise added by sentiment and momentum to the pricing process.

A Usage History

Gold has been viewed as precious by civilizations going back millennia, with evidence of usage in the form of coins going back to the Lydian civilization, located in Turkey in 600 BC, with the Greeks and the Romans following. In South America, where gold was abundant, it was more likely to have ceremonial or spiritual value, crafted into ornaments, ritual objects and artifacts, and it was only after the Spanish conquistadors arrived that gold acquired monetary status. In Asia, gold coins can be traced back to the Qin dynasty in China in 2500 BC, and to India and South East Asia.

It is worth noting that for centuries, the issuers (governments and kingdom) of fiat currencies tied them to gold to get skeptical populaces to hold them. In the eighteenth century, this linkage was formalized in the gold standard, where paper currency issuance was backed by holdings in gold, with paper money convertible into gold. England adopted a de facto bimetallic (silver and gold) standard in the early 1700s, but a miscalculation by Isaac Newton on the silver/gold ratio, where silver was overpriced relative to gold, made it a gold standard. While England did not formally adopt the gold standard until 1818, the United States, at its birth as a country, and eager to have its new currency (the dollar) be accepted, followed England’s model, with a brief break during the civil war in the 1860s.

In the second half of the nineteenth century, the gold standard became the base for most major currencies, but two events in the early twentieth century put it to the test. During the First World War, governments in need of money to fund their armies found their hands tied by the constraints of gold, and many were forced to abandon convertibility and the gold standard. The United States stayed with the gold standard into the Great Depression, with some economists blaming the Fed’s actions trying to defend it for worsening the economic collapse. In the face of crisis, individuals rushed to convert dollars to gold, leading to the halting of convertibility and an effective end to a true Gold Standard. After the Second World War, the United States emerged as the economic superpower, and with the Bretton-Woods agreement, the US dollar took the place of gold at the center of the global monetary system, with the dollar convertible to gold at a fixed price. That system held until the early seventies, but broke down as the dollar deflated, and in 1971, it was officially abandoned. While central banks continue to hold gold, the gold standard is now dead, though there are some who seek a return to the system, with its enforced discipline and rigidity.

A Pricing History

As we noted at the start of this post, gold has had quite a run in 2025, as you can see in the chart below, where we traces it daily price movements during the year:

Through October 24, 2025, gold prices are up 57% for the year, posting significant increases every quarter of the year. To provide perspective on how this year measures up against history, we looked at the percentage change in gold prices every year going back to 1963.

Gold has had its ups and downs over time, with a surge in prices in the late 1970s, with the very best and very worst years in terms of returns occurring within two years of each other; gold prices were up 133% in 1979 and down 32.15% in 1981. Inflation was the culprit, and while we will take a closer look at it in the next section, we also computed the gold price in inflation-adjusted terms in the graph, and on October 24, 2025, that inflation-adjusted price also hit an all time high, using year-end prices. In the graph, you will notice that the gold price was stagnant before 1971, largely because of the convertibility of US dollars into gold. After the Bretton Woods agreement established the US dollar as the international reserve currency, the United States agreed to back it up by agreeing to convert US dollars at $35 an ounce, andgold prices (at least in dollar terms) stayed tethered to that price. In 1971, the United States abandoned that backing, and gold prices have been set by demand and supply since.

Drivers of gold prices

There is a route that can be used to estimate the “fundamental” value of a commodity by gauging the demand for the commodity (based on its uses) and the supply. While that may work, at least in principle, for industrial commodities, it is tough to put into practice with precious metals in general, and gold because the demand is not driven primarily by practical uses. While gold does not have an intrinsic value, there are at least three factors historically that have influenced the price of gold- inflation, fear of crises and real interest rates.

1. Inflation

If as is commonly argued, gold is an alternative to paper currency, the price of gold will be determined by how much trust individuals have in paper currency. Thus, it is widely believed that if the value of paper currency is debased by inflation, gold will gain in value. To see if the widely held view of gold as a hedge against inflation has a basis, we looked at changes in gold prices and the inflation rate each year from 1963-2024 in the figure below:

The co-movement of gold and inflation is strongest in the 1970s, a decade where the US economy was plagued by high inflation and the correlation between gold prices and the inflation rate is brought home, when you regress returns on gold against the inflation rate for the entire period:

% Change in Gold price = -0.06 + 3.92 (Inflation rate) R squared = 18.8%

While this regression does back the conventional view of gold as an inflation hedge, there are two potential weak spots.

• The first is that the R-squared is only 19%, suggesting that factors other than inflation have a significant effect on gold prices.

• The second is that removing the 1970s essentially removes much of the significance from this regression. In fact, while the large move in gold prices in the 1970s can be explained by unexpectedly high inflation during the decade, the rise of gold prices between 2001 and 2012 cannot be attributed to inflation.

To get a cleaner look at the interaction between gold and inflation, we looked at the percentage change in gold prices, by decade, and contrasted it with the returns on stocks, bills, bonds and real estate in the table below:

Gold has three standout decades - 1971-1980, 2001-2010 and the last five years (2021-2025), with unexpectedly high inflation being the driver of returns in the first and third instances. Gold’s surge in the 2001 to 2010 time period can be attributed partially to the 2008 crisis, but gold had several good years leading into the crisis. If there is one finding that we can glean from this data, gold is more a hedge against extreme (and unexpected) movements in inflation and does not really provide much protection against smaller inflation changes.

2. Fear of Crises

Through the centuries, gold has been the safe haven for investors fleeing a crisis. Thus, as investor fears ebb and flow, gold prices should go up and down. To test this effect, we used two forward-looking measures of investor fears – the default spread on a Baa-rated bond and the implied equity risk premium (which is a forward looking premium, computed based upon stock prices and expected cash flows). As investor fears increase, you should expect to see these risk premiums in both the equity and the bond market increase, and gold to rise in concurrence. The figure below summarizes the risk premiums in financial markets (bond default spreads and equity risk premiums) and gold returns each year from 1963 to 2024:

While the relationship is harder to decipher than the one with inflation, higher equity risk premiums correlate with higher gold prices, but only barely. Again, regressing annual returns on gold against these two measures separately, we get:

% Change in Gold Price = -0.13 + 5.21 (ERP) R squared = 5.02%

% Change in Gold Price = 0.13 -1.32 (Baa Rate - T.Bond Rate) R squared = 0.20%

These regressions suggest little or no relationship between bond default spreads and gold prices, but a modest positive relationship, albeit one with substantial noise, between gold prices and equity risk premiums. Thus, gold prices seem to move more with fear in the equity markets than with concerns in the bond market, with every 1% increase in the equity risk premium translating into an increase of 5.21% in gold prices. As with inflation, though, gold’s protective role in crises seems to be greatest during potentially catastrophic economic events, giving it the patina as a crisis hedge.

3. Real interest rates

One of the costs of holding gold is that while you hold it, you lose the return you could have made investing it in a financial asset, dividends on stocks and coupons on bonds. The magnitude of this opportunity cost is captured by the real interest rate, with higher real interest rates translating into much higher opportunity costs and thus lower prices for gold. The real interest rate can be measured directly used the inflation indexed treasury bond (TIPs) rate or indirectly by netting out the expected inflation from a nominal risk free (or close to risk free) rate. The figure below summarizes real interest rates and gold price changes on a year-by-year basis from 1963 to 2024:

Note that the TIPs rate is available only for the two decades and that the real interest rate is computed as the difference between the ten-year US treasury bond rate in that year and the realized inflation rate (rather than the expected inflation rate). Regressing changes in gold prices against the real interest rate yields the following:

% Change in Gold price = 0.18 – 4.69 (T.Bond Rate - Inflation Rate) R Squared =21.9%

High real interest rates are negative for gold prices and low real interest rates, or negative real interest rates, push gold prices higher.

The Bottom line

Gold is often touted as a hedge against inflation and crises, but the evidence from history is nuanced. With inflation, it is a better hedge against unexpected inflation than expected inflation, and even with unexpected inflation, only for increases that put inflation above normal bounds. In short, it is a hedge against hyper inflation. With crises as well, the evidence is mixed, since gold prices are, for the most part, unaffected by movements in equity and bond risk measures that fall within historical bounds, but increase during risk events that are uncommon and potentially catastrophic. Investors who add gold to their portfolios because of the protection it offers should recognize it more akin to buying insurance against extreme events, and more useful if the bulk of their wealth is in financial assets.

Is gold expensive, correctly priced or cheap?

Knowing that gold prices move with inflation, equity risk premiums and real interest rates is useful, but it still does not help us answer the fundamental question of whether gold prices today are too high or low. Can you price gold against other investments or itself? The answer is yes, though the results are often noisy.

A. Against inflation

In companion papers, Erb and Harvey examined the relationship between gold prices and inflation. In these papers, the price of gold is related to the CPI index and a ratio of gold prices to the CPI index is computed. In the first of these papers, they argued that in the very long term, gold prices increase at roughly the inflation rate, but in the second, they do question that hypothesis. We try to replicate their findings and we use the US Department of Labor CPI index for all items (and all urban consumers) set to a base of 100 in 1982-84, but with data going back to 1947. The level of the index in December 2023 was 308.742. Dividing the gold price of $4118/oz on October 24, 2025, by the CPI index level of 324.80, on that day, yields a value of 17.81. To get a measure of whether that number is high or low, we computed it every year going back to 1963 in the figure below:

The median value is 2.93 for the 1963-2024 period and 3.77 for the 1971-2024 period. Thus, based purely on the comparison of the current measure of the Gold/CPI ratio to the historical medians does miss the fact that lower interest rates and inflation in the last decade may be skewing the statistics. Consequently, we regressed the Gold/CPI index against equity risk premiums and real interest rates and while real interest rates seem to have little effect on the Gold/CPI ratio, there is strong evidence that it moves with the ERP, increasing (decreasing) as the ERP increases (decreases):

Gold Price/ CPI = -1.79 + 123.56 (ERP) R Squared = 47.7%

The implied equity risk premium for the S&P 500 at the start of October 2025 was 4.03%, and plugging that value into the gold/CPI regression yields the following:

Gold/CPI (given ERP of 4.03% on 10/24/25) = -1.79+ 123.56 (.0403) = 3.19

Put simply, gold looks overpriced in October 2025, even after correcting for changing equity risk premiums.

B. Against other precious metals

There is another way that you can frame the relative value of gold and that is against other precious metals. For instance, you can price gold, relative to silver, and make a judgment on whether it is cheap or expensive (on a relative basis). At the end of October 2025, the gold price was $4118/oz and the silver price was $47.80/oz, yielding a ratio of 84.73 for gold to silver prices (4118/47.80). To get a measure of where this number stands in a historical context, we looked at the ratio of gold prices to silver prices from 1963 to 2025 in the figure below:

The median value of 57.09 over the 1963-2024 period would suggest that gold is overpriced, relative to silver. Given that gold and silver move together more often than they move in opposite directions, we are not sure that this relationship can be mined to address the question of whether gold is fairly priced today, but it can still be the basis for trading across precious metals.

The Bottom Line

The historical data yields two conclusions, albeit at odds with each other. If you believe that history is your best guide for the future and that mean reversion will win out, it is undeniable that gold is overpriced against almost every metric it is usually priced against. In fact, you could argue that the rise of gold prices in the last decade is unprecedented since it has not been accompanied by raging inflation or by big market crises (though there have been economic crises). The counter is that using historical data as a guide, gold has been overpriced over the last decade, a period over which its price has increased almost four fold, from $1060/oz at the end of 2015 to $4,118 on October 24, 2025. When an investment stays overpriced for that long, it is legitimate to question whether the pricing metric is flawed, and whether there a structural shift has occurred that has shifted the distribution. In the case of gold, priced on demand and supply, that shift has to be almost entirely on the demand side, since the stock of gold has continued to expand at a slow, but steady pace, during the period, and here are some of the possible reasons:

1. More pathways to buying/holding gold: For centuries, extending into the last century, the only way to invest in gold was to hold it in its physical form, with all of the limitations on making fractional investments and the added transactions/storage costs. The rise of Gold ETFs has reduced or removed both constraints allowing more investors entree into the gold market.

2. Mistrust of central banks: Investments in financial assets (stocks and bonds) are a reflection of the trust investors have in central banks and governments, working to preserve the buying power of the currencies that they issue. In the aftermath of central banking activism in the post-2008 period, that trust in central banks and governments has depleted, at least for a segment of the population, leading to a shift on their part to gold (and bitcoin).

3. Slippage of the US dollar: In the aftermath of Bretton Woods, the world adopted the US dollar as a global base currency, with a tether remaining to gold. During that period, central banks held gold, as backup for their currencies, though individuals were restricted or denied the ability to convert currency to gold. Even after the US removed its last formal connection to the gold standard in 1971, the strength of the dollar and the centrality of the US economy allowed investors to use the US dollar as a safe haven currency, as a substitute for gold. It is undeniable that the US economy and dollar have been under stress for the last decade or more, with the ratings downgrade for the US being only a manifestation of these stresses. With no other global currency ready (yet) to take the place of the dollar, you can argue that gold is once again asserting its role as safe haven, and that the rise in its price reflects that status.

4. The Trump effect: While the first two factors have been in play for decades, this year has seen unusual turmoil, as tariff threats and economic wars threaten to unravel an economic world order that has governed markets and economies for much of the last century. While there are some who will welcome that development, it is not clear what the replacement will be, and the possibility of a catastrophic outcome is perhaps greater than it was a year or two ago, and this too is a positive for gold prices.

For much of the last century, investors who held gold in their portfolios tended to be a subset of the market, older and more concerned about catastrophes than the rest of us, but it is undeniable that this group now is both larger and drawing in some who would have historically pushed it away.

Investment Consequences

With that long lead in, every investor is faced with the question of whether gold fits into their investment portfolios, and the reason for holding it. There are four pathways that an investor can follow with gold, and without any judgment attached, here they are, with the trade offs involved:

1. Gold as a core investment: There are some investors who have built their portfolios, with gold as a central component, representing a significant portion of their holdings.

   • The trade off: Looking at the last forty years of returns on different investment classes, you can see why making an argument for holding gold as your core investment is so difficult to justify. Gold, with its annual compounded return of 5.35% between 1984 and 2024, would have significantly underperformed an investment in US stocks, that earned a compounded return of 11.38%, a difference that translates into a significant shortfall in ending portfolio value for gold investors; investing in US stocks in 1984 would have generated almost ten times as high an ending value in 2024, as investing an equivalent amount in gold in 1984.

     

     In fact, gold has also been a more risky investment, on a stand alone basis, than stocks with a higher standard deviation in annual returns. Does that make gold investors irrational? Not necessarily, because they may define risk in terms of best case and worst case outcomes, and while stock prices, at least in their perspective, have no lower bound, gold has a lower bound value, at least based on history.

   • The draw: For investors who have a deep attachment to gold combined with a distrust of financial assets, governments and central banks, the net effect of holding a portfolio dominated by gold is that it improves their odds of passing the sleep test, i.e., they don’t lose sleep wondering how their portfolios are doing. In short, they are willing to accept lower compounded annual returns over the long term in return for the security of holding an investment that they view as timeless.

   • The choices: Gold’s standing comes from its long history as a collectible, but it is not the only collectible. Through time, investors have also put their money in precious gems and other metals (silver, platinum), art and collectibles. In fact, some of the rise in cryptos (currencies, tokens and assets) can be attributed to a subset of (mostly younger) investors, who share the distrust of governments and central banks with gold investors, deciding to use bitcoin as an alternative to gold.

2. Gold as insurance: For investors with the bulk of their portfolios in financial assets (stocks and bonds), gold holdings can help insure their portfolios, at least partially, against inflation and market/economic crises.

   • The trade off: As we noted earlier in the post, gold has been only a weak hedge against inflation and market crises that fall within normal bounds, but has done much better as a edge against hyperinflation and catastrophic market/economic risks. Adding gold to a financial asset dominated portfolio can provide insurance against the latter, but only if held in large enough quantity to make a difference; given the history of stock and gold returns, a gold holding that is 5% of your portfolio will not be enough and you will need a holding closer to 15-20%.

   • The draw: All investors should be concerned about catastrophic risks, but it is undeniable that this concern varies across investors, with older and more risk averse investors more inclined to have that concern. It is also true that worries about catastrophes vary over time, increasing across all investors in troubled times.

   • The choices: The rise of derivatives markets has increased the choices for investors to buy protection against hyperinflation and catastrophes. Thus, you can use ETFs and options to hedge your portfolio against market collapses, if that is your concern, or shift your investments to other currencies and countries, if your worry is about hyperinflation in the domestic currency.

3. Gold as a trade: In trading, the key to winning is timing, buying when prices are low and selling when they are high, and there are some who make their money on gold by timing its ups and downs well.

   • The trade off: Getting the timing right in trading is easier said that done. While the peaks and bottoms of gold prices are easy to pinpoint in hindsight, it is worth remembering that many investors who became rich riding the gold price boom from 1977-1979 lost it all in next five years. The traders who bought gold in 2022 are riding high, at the moment, after a three-year surge in gold prices, but they too may be looking at disappointment, if they do not cash out at the right time.

   • The draw: Trading is a pricing game, and since price is determined more by mood and momentum, success in gold trading comes down to detecting momentum shifts before they occur, and trading on that basis. For some gold traders, this capacity may come from examining charts on gold prices and volume, and for others, it may be in reading the macroeconomic tealeaves, especially on inflation.

   • The choices: If trading is your game, the market is ripe with targets, ranging from cryptos in the collective space to meme stocks, and many of these alternatives offer a bigger payoff to trading, since they are more volatile than gold and in some cases, offer more liquidity.

4. Gold as a signal: There are many investors who have no desire to own or or are averse to holding gold in their portfolios, but use gold prices as signals of either hyperinflation or economic catastrophes to structure their portfolios.

   • The trade off: The allure of gold as a signal of inflation and market crises comes from history, where gold prices have tended to rise during periods of high inflation and economic uncertainty. Much of the relationship, though, is contemporaneous, i.e,, gold prices rise in periods when inflation is high and risks surge, and there is only weak evidence of gold prices being a leading indicator of future changes.

   • The draw: Since portfolios composed primarily or entirely of financial assets are badly damaged by unexpected inflation or a market meltdown, having a predictor, even a flawed one, that can give advance warning has big payoffs. In particular, if gold prices rising is a signal that inflation will be higher than expected in the future, you could alter your asset allocation, shifting money from stocks and long terms bonds to short term bills and commercial paper, or even your asset selection, moving money from companies that have little pricing power and significant operating risk to companies with substantial pricing power and predictable earnings streams.

   • The choices: Here again, markets offer other choices, with futures markets and forward contracts specifically targeted at predicting inflation or economic and market shocks. Thus, you could use inflation futures to protect against hyper inflation and volatility indicators (like the VIX) to hedge against market crises.

The Bottom Line

Gold has had a good run this year, and I will not begrudge those who got into it early. Some undoubtedly just got lucky to be at the right place at the right time, but some were prescient in detecting a shift in the market vibe, especially in 2025. The truth is that the market for gold has been and always will be a niche market, drawing a subset of investors, but that niche shrinks and expands over time. When the world is stable and times are good, the niche is composed almost entirely of true believers, a mix of conspiracy theorists and doomsday cultists who believe that fiat currencies are more paper than money and that financial asset markets are designed to enrich insiders. In scarier times, the niche expands, drawing in investors who normally invest in stocks and bonds, but decide, either because of distrust of central banks or perceived market bubbles, that they need the safety of gold. While I do not have a ledger listing everyone holding gold in October 2025, I will wager that it includes names that you would normally expect to see in the list. After all, if Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio actually mean what they say about markets being a bubble, would it not make sense for them to hold gold?

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Datasets

1. Gold, Bitcoin and Silver prices in 2025

2. Gold, Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate Returns: 1928-2025