The deepest edges in investing aren’t about seeing what others don’t — they’re about being prepared when others panic. Contrarianism only works if the homework’s already done. Most people don’t buy the dip — they buy the drama. The real move is knowing what you wanted before the price dropped. Been writing more about this mindset lately — especially how to stay clear-headed when markets get noisy. If that resonates, feel free to check out my page. Always love connecting with like-minded thinkers.
How to differentiate between low price and value trap . I don’t want to catch the falling knife . Also , current market reactions do not make any logic compared to valuations . How do we navigate such situations ?
For day trading I routinely like to BTFD when price has fallen 3/+ standard deviations below VWAP. There is always a mean reversion trade back to VWAP or higher. 🤑
Great to see you on here Aswath! One of the truly remarkable minds when it comes to valuations. We have watched all your lectures on YouTube, thanks for continuing to build a community on other platforms. We would love if you could take a look at our newsletter.
Our mission is to democratize M&A, empowering small and family-owned businesses to thrive in an ever-changing world.
Would absolutely love your thoughts on the newsletter, let us know how we can improve :)
With every swing missed, you become a long time investor, the downside is with every miss your beliefs and cold analysis become more biased with disbelief and the capacity to extract technical correlations form the broad data is diminished.
Excellent analysis of the types of contrarians in the markets. Ultimately, it boils down to keeping emotions in check and having enough intellectual autonomy to buy what's good (and will remain so when the wind dies down) when everyone else is selling.
Very well put. It’s often difficult to know when price is actually below value during periods when everyone is selling. Conviction, a strong stomach, and the willingness to look wrong for a while all come into play. A historically low price on its own is definitely not an investment strategy.
Great historical context. Every drawdown feels uniquely catastrophic in real time, but the data keeps showing the same pattern — resets are where the next leg starts for those with the patience to hold conviction.
The dip buying framing always looks better retrospectively because the survivors define the dataset. Plenty of investors averaged into Nokia, Sears, GE in their respective dips and never saw the bounce. The harder question is distinguishing a cyclical mispricing from structural value erosion, which intrinsic value frameworks help with but never fully solve.
Great analysis. I don't think pltr goes below 80 again...but time will tell. They really are a special ai company
The deepest edges in investing aren’t about seeing what others don’t — they’re about being prepared when others panic. Contrarianism only works if the homework’s already done. Most people don’t buy the dip — they buy the drama. The real move is knowing what you wanted before the price dropped. Been writing more about this mindset lately — especially how to stay clear-headed when markets get noisy. If that resonates, feel free to check out my page. Always love connecting with like-minded thinkers.
"Be greedyful when the others are fearful"
How to differentiate between low price and value trap . I don’t want to catch the falling knife . Also , current market reactions do not make any logic compared to valuations . How do we navigate such situations ?
For day trading I routinely like to BTFD when price has fallen 3/+ standard deviations below VWAP. There is always a mean reversion trade back to VWAP or higher. 🤑
Very insightful!
Thank you!
Great to see you on here Aswath! One of the truly remarkable minds when it comes to valuations. We have watched all your lectures on YouTube, thanks for continuing to build a community on other platforms. We would love if you could take a look at our newsletter.
Our mission is to democratize M&A, empowering small and family-owned businesses to thrive in an ever-changing world.
Would absolutely love your thoughts on the newsletter, let us know how we can improve :)
https://open.substack.com/pub/mergex/p/lvmh-gives-football-wings?r=5jchmz&utm_medium=ios
As always an Artpiece!
Only one month free:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-170327975/comment/142945551?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5jv7ch
With every swing missed, you become a long time investor, the downside is with every miss your beliefs and cold analysis become more biased with disbelief and the capacity to extract technical correlations form the broad data is diminished.
This guy went sooo deep, why.!
Excellent analysis of the types of contrarians in the markets. Ultimately, it boils down to keeping emotions in check and having enough intellectual autonomy to buy what's good (and will remain so when the wind dies down) when everyone else is selling.
Very well put. It’s often difficult to know when price is actually below value during periods when everyone is selling. Conviction, a strong stomach, and the willingness to look wrong for a while all come into play. A historically low price on its own is definitely not an investment strategy.
Only 3 and 4 would let me sleep at night though.
Great historical context. Every drawdown feels uniquely catastrophic in real time, but the data keeps showing the same pattern — resets are where the next leg starts for those with the patience to hold conviction.
The dip buying framing always looks better retrospectively because the survivors define the dataset. Plenty of investors averaged into Nokia, Sears, GE in their respective dips and never saw the bounce. The harder question is distinguishing a cyclical mispricing from structural value erosion, which intrinsic value frameworks help with but never fully solve.
A good read. Thank You.
Thank you Prof. Damodaran!