I am sure that you have sensed a bias that I bring to the table about market and macro timers but I think I should make it explicit. I believe that there are ways in which you can beat the market in the long term, but very few of those ways involve market timing or calls about the macro economy. I know that there are stories in every market about great market timers, i.e., investors who made exactly the right call at exactly the right time about a market: Japan in 1989, dot-com stocks in 2000, housing in 2007 and financial assets in late 2008. Here is why I remain a skeptic:
Macro and Market Timers
Macro and Market Timers
Macro and Market Timers
I am sure that you have sensed a bias that I bring to the table about market and macro timers but I think I should make it explicit. I believe that there are ways in which you can beat the market in the long term, but very few of those ways involve market timing or calls about the macro economy. I know that there are stories in every market about great market timers, i.e., investors who made exactly the right call at exactly the right time about a market: Japan in 1989, dot-com stocks in 2000, housing in 2007 and financial assets in late 2008. Here is why I remain a skeptic: