Thanks for sharing your update on Tesla, professor! That's a good point that Tesla can eventually take less margin on their cars for the higher margin other services. I recently rented a Polestar while I was in California and had the worst time charging it. I quickly learned that the charging system is woeful except for Teslas. It made me wonder what value Tesla's charging infrastructure could add to the story? I heard many times while I was out there that Tesla is going to start sharing its infrastructure with other manufacturers.
Valuing the energy business (entirely battery storage) at 3.2 times the market cap of Panasonic (energy makes up about 10% of Panasonic's revenue) seems generous.
Valuing the energy business (entirely battery storage) at 3.2 times the market cap of Panasonic (energy makes up about 10% of Panasonic's revenue) seems generous.
- Optimus will dwarf auto/energy/fsd. Look at the BMW Figure AI contract and the latest Optimus videos. It seems we'll have humanoid robots doing simple tasks in factories by the end of this year.
- Energy revenue should be $20B by the end of 2024 Lathrop, $20B by the end of 2025 Shanghai.
- BEV will be essentially ALL the new auto business by probably 2028, so 10-20M seems probable for the lowest cost producer, combined price/capability.
Epic coverage, so many angles ... thank you! Have a great day sir!
Thanks for sharing your update on Tesla, professor! That's a good point that Tesla can eventually take less margin on their cars for the higher margin other services. I recently rented a Polestar while I was in California and had the worst time charging it. I quickly learned that the charging system is woeful except for Teslas. It made me wonder what value Tesla's charging infrastructure could add to the story? I heard many times while I was out there that Tesla is going to start sharing its infrastructure with other manufacturers.
Good read, been recently doing some research on this sector in order to support positioning from a couple of years ago; Tesla is still a 100$ stock trading above its fair valuation. Tesla used to be considered the Apple of the automobile sector. Since Tesla lowered its car prices, Tesla started losing that legacy, and now Tesla is competing with the average car price ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-09/tesla-prices-now-rival-average-us-cars-after-billions-in-cuts ). New, cheaper, and better alternatives ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/mercedes-benz-hands-free-driving-technology-drive-pilot-beats-tesla ) in the electric vehicle sector will more than likely further reduce demand for Tesla cars, reducing further the upside in it.
Valuing the energy business (entirely battery storage) at 3.2 times the market cap of Panasonic (energy makes up about 10% of Panasonic's revenue) seems generous.
Valuing the energy business (entirely battery storage) at 3.2 times the market cap of Panasonic (energy makes up about 10% of Panasonic's revenue) seems generous.
Just found this. Great work, but a few comments:
- Optimus will dwarf auto/energy/fsd. Look at the BMW Figure AI contract and the latest Optimus videos. It seems we'll have humanoid robots doing simple tasks in factories by the end of this year.
- Energy revenue should be $20B by the end of 2024 Lathrop, $20B by the end of 2025 Shanghai.
- BEV will be essentially ALL the new auto business by probably 2028, so 10-20M seems probable for the lowest cost producer, combined price/capability.